(This article was originally published on Tuesday.)


By Dan Molinski


U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have risen from the previous week in data due Wednesday from the Energy Department, according to a survey of analysts and traders by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 10 analysts and traders showed U.S. oil inventories are projected to have increased by 1.7 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 14, with just one analyst forecasting a decline and the other nine predicting an increase. Forecasts range from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.

Analysts said the expected increase is partly due to another transfer of crude from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side, as part of a year-long effort by the U.S. government to boost supplies and reduce gasoline prices at the pump.

The closely watched survey from the DOE’s Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to decrease by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 3.3 million barrels to an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3.7 million barrels to an increase of 500,000 barrels.

Refinery use likely declined by 0.5 percentage point from the previous week to 89.4%. Forecasts range from a 1.5 percentage-point decrease to a 0.5 percentage-point increase. Two analysts didn’t make a forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said Tuesday its data for the week showed a 1.3 million-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 2.2 million-barrel fall in gasoline stocks and a 1.1 million-barrel decline in distillate inventories, according to a source.

Refinery Crude Gasoline Distillates Use Again Capital 2.6 1.8 -2.1 0.5 Citi Futures 2.5 -2.5 -3.5 -0.5 Confluence Investment Management 3 -3 -2 -0.5 DTN 1.1 -1 0.5 -0.9 Excel Futures 2.8 -3.3 -3.7 0.2 Spartan Capital Securities 1.3 1.1 -2.9 n/f Mizuho 2 -1 -1 -0.9 Price Futures Group -2 -2 -2 unch Ritterbusch and Associates 3 -1.5 -3.0 -1.5 Tradition Energy 0.2 -2.8 -2.5 n/f AVERAGE 1.7 -1.4 -2.2 -0.5

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Note: Figures in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is in percentage points.

Write to Dan Molinski at [email protected]

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