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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Dip To One-Week Low As Production Hits Record High

while there were also large amounts of gas in storage for the winter.

This drop in prices came despite forecasts of cooler weather and higher heating demand next week, a 6%

rise in gas prices in Europe, start-up of a new liquefaction terminal in Louisiana and record

US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Global gas prices hit record highs in October as utilities rushed to fill LNG cargoes low

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in Europe and meet growing demand in Asia, where energy shortages have caused blackouts in

China.

Analysts said European stocks were around 15% below normal for this time of year compared to just 3%

lower than normal in the United States.

US futures also hit a 12-year high in early October, driven by expectations of strong LNG months

demand, but overseas prices have increased more because the United States has a lot of gas in stock and

production.

Gas prices in Europe and Asia were still trading about five times as much as in the United States.

First-month gas futures fell 8.9 cents, or 1.6%, to $ 5.427 per million UK thermal

units (mmBtu), their lowest close since November 1.

As the amount of gas in U.S. stocks continued to rise, speculators last week reduced their net long positions in

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New York’s merchant and intercontinental trade for a fifth week at their lowest since June 2020,

according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Data provider Refinitiv said production in the lower 48 U.S. states averaged 95.8 billion cubic feet per day

(bcfd) so far in November, compared to 94.1 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

On a daily basis, production reached 97.4 bcfd on Saturday, breaking the previous daily high of 96.6 bcfd in

November 2019.

Refinitiv forecast that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 97.0 billion cf / d this week to

105.8 billion cubic feet per day next week as the weather turns colder and homes and businesses turn on their heaters.

The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv predicted on Friday.

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The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.0 billion cubic feet per day in November, up from

10.5 billion cubic feet per day in October. This compares to a monthly record of 11.5 billion cf / d in April.

Feed gas for Cheniere Energy Inc’s Sabine Pass LNG export plant in Louisiana hits a record 4.4 billion cubic feet per day

Friday, as the facility’s sixth liquefaction train began producing its first LNG.

Week ended Week ended One year ago Five years

Nov 5 Oct 29 Nov 5 Average

(Forecast) (Actual) November 5

Weekly variation in storage of natgas in the United States (bcf): 12 63 2 25

Total US natgas in storage (bcf): 3,623 3,611 3,926 3,737

Total U.S. Storage vs. 5 Year Average -3.1% -2.7%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current day Previous day This month Previous year Five years

Average of last year Average

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2020 (2016-2020)

Hub Henry 5.62 5.52 2.87 2.13 2.66

Ease of Ownership Transfer (TTF) 25.99 25.05 4.84 3.24 5.19

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 31.62 32.01 6.80 4.22 6.49

Final heating (HDD), cooling (CDD) and total (TDD) degree days

Total two-week forecast Current day Previous day Previous year 10 years 30 years

Standard Standard

American GFS hard drives 252 235 211 271 272

US DC SFP 7 9 22 12 12

TDD US GFS 259 ​​244 233 283 284

Refinitiv’s weekly GFS supply and demand forecasts in the United States

Previous week Current week Next week This week Five years

Average of last year for

Month

US supply (bcfd)

48 lower dry production in the United States 95.4 96.6 97.0 89.2 84.6

US imports from Canada 7.7 8.0 8.0 7.1 8.0

US imports of LNG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Total U.S. Supply 103.1 104.6 104.9 96.3 92.8

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American request (bcfd)

Exports from the United States to Canada 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7

US exports to Mexico 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.6 4.9

US LNG exports 10.8 11.2 11.4 10.5 4.6

US Commercial 9.4 9.4 12.2 9.1 11.1

US residential 13.0 13.4 18.4 13.0 16.5

American power station 27.7 25.3 24.6 25.5 24.5

American industry 23.0 22.4 23.5 22.7 23.5

American vegetable fuel 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7

Pipeline distribution in the United States 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1

Fuel for vehicles in the United States 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total United States Consumption 80.1 77.5 85.9 77.3 82.5

Total US demand 98.8 97.0 105.8 95.9 94.7

Percentage of weekly electricity production in the United States by fuel – EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

Nov 12 Nov 5 Oct 29 Oct 22 Oct 15

Wind 12 9 14 11 12

Solar 3 2 3 3 3

Hydroelectric 6 6 6 6 6

Other 2 2 2 3 3

Oil 1 1 1 1 1

Natural gas 37 40 38 38 38

Coal 19 19 18 19 21

Nuclear 20 19 19 19 18

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next Day Price ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current day Previous day

Henri hub 5.51 5.73

Transco Z6 New York 5.92 5.43

PG&E Citygate 6.38 6.00

South Dominion 4.64 5.18

Chicago city gate 5.20 5.54

Algonquin city gate 5.20 5.75

SoCal Citygate 6.40 5.80

Waha Center 4.80 5.11

SNL US Power Next Day Price ($ per megawatt hour)

Hub Current day Previous day

New England 57.00 65.50

PJM West 49.75 52.25

Ercot North 49.13 60.00

Medium C 62.00 52.50

Palo verde 49.25 61.00

SP-15 51.25 55.50

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Jan Harvey and David Gregorio)

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